The ongoing Russia-Ukraine unrest is being regarded as World War III due to the catastrophic destruction it has been causing. The Russian invasion started on February 24, 2022, when thousands of Russian troops crossed the Ukraine border and stormed its cities.
It has resulted in political, economic, and social turmoil in both Ukraine and Russia. Moreover, it has also impacted global peace.
The India-Russia ties have been a longstanding relation. Since the signing of the “Declaration on the India-Russia Strategic Partnership” in October 2000, both countries have enhanced the level of cooperation in almost all spheres including trade and economy, politics, security, science, technology, etc. Due to the Russia-Ukraine war, India has been one of the most impacted countries.
As quoted by India’s finance minister, Nirmala Sitharaman “India’s development is going to be challenged by the newer challenges emanating in the world. Peace is being threatened and after the Second World War, (a) war of this significance, this impact, on the globe probably is not felt.“
The effect of the war on India is visible in the following areas-
- The economic and financial sector
- Political relations
- Trade and commerce
Positive Impacts
The Indian economy may see a bright spot. It might be able to fill the void in the global trade caused by the war. The first silver lining for India is its exports. It is expected that India can seize the gap created by Ukraine in the wheat export market. Also, Ukraine and Russia are major exporters of other grains as well. So, India can gain a lot through the exports of those grains.
The situation may benefit the mustard growers in Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh as the prices are ruling at Rs. 6,500 plus per quintal.
Another sector that is expected to gain from the war is the metal and mining industry. This is due to the inflation in the price of metals. Russia and Ukraine fulfill about 10% of the global aluminum and steel demand through exports. India is also one of the major exporters of aluminum and steel and this war will surely increase the exports.
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Negative Impacts
The economy of India has already been at stake due to the Covid-19 pandemic. The ongoing crises can have further impacts on the Indian Economy. India’s benchmark S&P BSE Sensex has dropped by about 2,700 points, the highest drop in two years.
India is one of the largest importers of fertilizers. The war might result in inflation of fertilizer prices, which can eventually result in an increase in subsidy bills. The visible increase in prices of fuel, CNG gas, edible oil, etc. will also impact the common man.
Russia and Ukraine are also major importers of tea and coffee from India. A decrease in imports can be seen in the future due to the war. Moreover, the situation may benefit the mustard growers in Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh as the prices are ruling at Rs. 6,500 plus per quintal.
Russia has constantly fulfilled the fuel requirements of India. Almost 85% of the fuels are imported from Russia. The crises have resulted in a surge in oil and gas prices which is worrisome. The crude oil prices have risen by about 20% since the war has started.
It has also resulted in a steep increase in India’s edible oil market as the country imports more than 90% of its sunflower oil from Russia and Ukraine. Russia has also been a military and technology supplier for India. This sector can also get affected.
Depending on how long global oil prices continue to remain high, the tensions may cast doubt on the RBI’s ability to forecast inflation and impact the government’s budget calculations, particularly the fiscal deficit.
Apart from economical disturbances, the political and social ties of India can also get affected. India is in a difficult situation with its growing relationship with the US on one hand and Russia on the other hand with which it has historic ties.
Western countries are said to be unhappy and disappointed with India’s stand on staying neutral. At a political level, if Russia-US or Russia-West relations become tense then India’s relations with Russia will become complicated.
Conclusion
Many experts have commented on the issue stating that the impact on India will not be long-lasting and will be muted soon. India will combat the issues if it continues to stay neutral and takes advantage of the situation.
Disclaimer: This article is fact-checked
Sources: The Hindu, The Economic Times, Business Today
Image sources: Google Images
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This post is tagged under: russia-ukraine, war, india, politics, world peace, global crises, economic, trade, commerce, exports, imports, fuel, fuel prices, CNG, social turmoil, social ties, western countries, finance minister, catastrophic, destruction, deaths, military, steel, aluminium, mining, fertilizers
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