Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will be marked with eternal disgust the moment historians begin writing about modern global politics in the near future.
With an entire month already being done and dusted with, neither of the sides has displayed any whim to back off. Numerous peace talks have taken place and failed, consequently, resulting in continued devastation of Ukrainian towns and settlements.
As of now, the human cost of the invasion/war has reached its zenith with the peak only rising higher till the country would be wiped clean of all semblance of civilization.
However, at present, the gateway towards peace seems clearer by the day and a resolution might just be underway. Yet, the question still remains, what will be the result of the war and will everything well and truly change?
Where Does The War Stand At?
Much like every other war that has been fought on the surface of the Earth, the Russo-Ukrainian war has also been reduced to the absolute primal- numbers. Situations that should imbibe within a fellow human being with a feeling of dread and misery have now become just another Monday morning weekly statistic. However, after all that’s said and done, whenever it comes to historical events little is remembered about the plight of the people.
In a similar fashion, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, after a month of incessant violence and failed discussions, has yielded rampant destruction and statistics throughout its course.
According to official statistics recorded by the UN refugee agency’s data portal, more than 4 million people, more than half of the country’s population, have left Ukraine since the beginning of the invasion.
The latest data dictates that about 2,362,044 people have entered Poland, while 616,692 have entered Romania, 388,837 in Moldova, 368,807 in Hungary, 350,632 in Russia 283,824 in Slovakia, and 11,821 in Belarus. The numbers are still growing at a constant rate.
The refugees have mostly been women and children, while men between the age group of 18 and 60 have been prevented from leaving Ukraine to stay on and fight. Moreover, this data has been accompanied with the fact that Russian troops have come to control a fair amount of Ukrainian provinces in their pursuit.
Ukrainian officials have deliberated that Moscow’s troops have prevented them from delivering aid to the besieged port city of Mariupol. However, in a string of hope, developments have come in the form of Russian troops withdrawing from near Kyiv and Chernihiv.
There have been incessant protests against the Russian invasion all over the world with major protests breaking out in Moscow itself. According to OVD-Info, a human-rights tracker in Russia, around 5000 demonstrators have already been captured and locked away. On the other hand, demonstrators all around the world have caused enough stir to warrant for the offensive to tone down.
What Will The War Yield In The End?
As of now, the end of the war has been determined as seemingly uncertain with experts lining up their theories meant for both the short and the long term. Little remains in the way of conjecture when it comes to the short term as many have perceived that it will only be a matter of time until the war ends as the Russian government is wearing thin its resources.
Owing to multiple sanctions from western countries, it has little option but to end the war sooner rather than later to salvage its economy.
However, the possibility of the Russian government declining to withdraw troops from the regions it already controls is fairly high as well. Owing to the fact that they have vowed to not retreat without getting what they want has been discussed to the T, yet, the chances of the conflict being protracted over years is fairly improbable.
The clauses put forward by the Kremlin have been clear cut however, fairly impossible. One of the focal points of the peace clauses lies in the form of the de-Nazification of Ukraine. According to the clause, particular far-right groups have to be disbanded and banned. Some of these groups form the crux of the government.
According to Tatiana Stanovaya, a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Moscow Center, the agreement of peace treaties will be fairly simple for both sides, however, the implementation would be a major problem. She states;
“I don’t see how Russia would agree to withdraw its army until all conditions are met. [It is also questionable] how quickly Zelenskyy would be able to fulfil them, to what extent the Ukrainian elite would be ready to accept them, and the society as well, which now believes is winning the war.”
Unfortunately, no matter when peace comes, Ukraine will lie in tatters. The International Monetary Fund estimates already depict that the Ukrainian economy may shrink by 35% (approximate) by the end of the year.
With little in the way of infrastructure and transport services owing to most of it being destroyed by Russian shellings, Ukraine will take its sweet time to rehabilitate itself with the global politico. Only time will tell, what the war yields.
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This post is tagged under: Ukraine, Biden, Putin, Russian invasion, Crimea, Russian backed separatists, Belarus, Donbas, OSCE, NATO, Vladamir Putin, Volodymyr Zelensky, Revolution of Dignity, Soviet Union, Emmanuel Macron, Minsk agreement, East Ukraine, War, Russian troops, Poland, Romanians, EU
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