Data scientists in Singapore predicted that the coronavirus pandemic will end in December.
They used a mathematical model known as SIR (susceptible, infected, recovered), to calculate the spread and recovery of COVID-19.
“The number of people diagnosed with Covid-19 is growing around the world, and as the epicenter of the outbreak shifts away from China, it is unlikely that the disease will taper off like SARS did”, said research experts.
“The virus is here to stay until the end of the year,” said Associate Professor Hsu Li Yang, infectious diseases programmer at the National University of Singapore’s Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health in a talk with The Straits Times.
On what basis are these predictions made?
A projection using artificial technology by the Singapore University of Technology and Design (SUTD) has made predictions on when the coronavirus pandemic will end, reports Mashable SEA.
The projections are based on the use of artificial intelligence (AI) technology and careful collection of data on total number of confirmed cases, total deaths, new confirmed cases, new deaths, and essential demographic data.
Researchers were able to project the infection curve and when the virus will end for a particular country using an AI algorithm.
The projections are based on a 97%, 99%, and 100% chance.
When will the Covid-19 crisis end?
The SUTD has predicted through SIR that COVID-19 will end 97% in India around May 21.
In the US, the COVID-19 outbreak is expected to end 97% around May 11, while it is predicted to end in the Philippines on July 8.
Read more: Breakfast Babble: Here’s How I Came Closer To My Parents During This Lockdown: A Blessing In Disguise
The researchers predict that the coronavirus crisis will end in Iran on May 10, in Turkey on May 15, in the UK on May 9,and in France on May 3. In Germany, the study says that the pandemic will end on April 30 and Canada on May 16. Globally, the crisis will subside by December 1,2020.
Treat these researches with caution
Researches warn that these predictions may prove wrong and hence we must advance with caution.
Over-optimism is fatal.
Social distancing is a must. It slows down the transmission of this fatal respiratory illness. A relaxation of lockdown could trigger a second wave of infection and overwhelm the health workers.
They warn that the AI model’s accuracy depends on the quality of the data. There is high probability that the data collected and analyzed is skewed.
Moreover, it should not affect policy decisions of the government in any way. For example, Singapore’s move to extend its lockdown could bend the curve earlier than predicted, while the early relaxation of lockdown in the premature stages might reap lethal results.
These figures and data are merely projections and do not take into account factors like population movement and virus mutation. Thus, various external factors are neglected in this model.
This model is not useful for countries in the early stages of the lifecycle of pandemic as little data is available and hence predictions are highly unreliable. “In such cases, the estimations are more about explaining the history and less about predicting the future,” wrote SUTD Professor Jianxi Luo, in a paper (PDF) on the method.
“For those countries, a new epidemic wave might come if the governments and individuals lift controls and disciplines too early, especially when the pandemic is still prevalent in other countries”.
Nevertheless, we must not turn pessimistic, and wait for better times to come.
Image credit: Google images
Sources: Thenextweb, Zee news, MSN and The Straits Times
Find the blogger: @lisa_tay_ari
This post is tagged under: coronavirus, covid-19, flattening of the curve, when will it end, vaccine, Singapore, India, US, AI, predict, end of year, duration, cure, Singapore scientists, when will coronavirus end in India
Other Recommendations:
In Pics: Let’s Give Due Credit to Sikhs For The Humanitarian Work They Have Done In COVID-19 Crisis
