By Bhavya
A little group of islands, surrounded by the beautiful waters of East China sea, might sound like quite a looked-forward-to tourist vacation spot. But, these seemingly peaceful islands are in the eye of an impending tornado.
This group of islets known with different names are an issue of much outrage between the ROC (Taiwan) and PRC (China), and Japan. They lie roughly due east of Mainland China, northeast of Taiwan, west of Okinawa Island (Japan), and north of the south-western end of the Ryukyu Islands (Japan). These different names are given to the islands by these three varied claimants. The Japanese call it Senkaku, the Chinese Daioyu, and the Taiwanese Daioyutai – a strategy that they all hate each other for deploying. This tendency to name in the way they desire is to establish a sense of belonging with the entity major and naming these islands in their own way is a method to legitimize their claims but this seemingly handicapped act to persuade is not alone in the league
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It all started with the Treaty of Shimonoseki in 1895, where Taiwan was annexed by the strong headed Japanese after they emerged victorious after a war with China. This same treaty was superseded by the beautifully tailored Treaty of San Francisco after Japan lost the WWII. So technically, the Senkaku/Daioyu should belong with Taiwan, and that should be more than enough to satisfy China. But, here is the catch. The Shimonoseki treaty never defined the geographical borders of Taiwan, and the Japanese use this lack of clarity to argue that the Senkaku/Daioyu were never a part of Taiwan. Added to this, the US occupation after WWII placed the Senkaku/Daioyu under Japanese control.
The Chinese are difficult to intimidate, and definitely uncompromising. It has been the undercurrent of their foreign dealings – relentless pursuit until victory. Though Japan currently administers those islands, China, along with Taiwan, contested the control. Events scattered across the past century were mostly about pro-Chinese activists, and occasional minor conflict, like a Chinese trawler being held off by the Japanese patrollers around the Senkaku/Daiouyu.
However, in 2012, Japan declared its intention to “buy” those islands from private Japanese owners. Apparently, this was done to douse the tensions, and basically, clear it to the Chinese who owns those islands for once and all. But, evidently, this worked the other way, and the Chinese firstly responded by expressing outrage – the “biggest” anti-Japanese protest and the Japanese embassy and ambassador’s car attacked and Japanese products were boycotted.
But the recent follow-ups in the dispute are the most important, because it marks changes and moves that are related to larger things.
The establishment of the air defence identification zone (ADIZ) over the East China Sea, which also covers the Senkaku islands, caused varied reactions – outcry by some nations, USA and Japan openly flouting the regulations and Australia going to the lengths of even summoning the Chinese ambassador to express dissent on the issue, simply because the entire issue weighs heavy on the countries involved in this ADIZ.
However, I like to see it as an open challenge for a showdown.
This eventually led to Japan responding by firstly pitching in concerning its seriousness about the issue by Mr Abe visiting the Yakusuni War Shrine, maintained by rightists in Japan, which immortalizes the memories of heroes and even war criminals Japan raised during WWII, and Mr Abe paying his respect to the dead celebrated in the shrine is responding with an equally aggressively offensive move.Added, the samurai is now flexing his muscles. Japan is going to boost its defence expenditure and strengthen military relations for the first time in about two decades.
Now, all seen and understood, there are points that one can speculate about – what can both gain from this dispute? The first would be economic aspects, and the resources Senkaku/Daioyu hold. Basically, the Exclusive Economic Zones of the parties haven’t been demarcated in a way that would satisfy both at the same time. And, then there is the prospect of oil underneath those islands. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan claims that it was not until 1971, after an academic survey which indicated the possibility of the existence of petroleum resources on the East China Sea in 1968, that the Government of China and Taiwan authorities officially began to assert claim over Senkaku Islands. However, evident to most of us it is, there is more than just the economic gains.
The second would be integrating the nation. For Japan, this is a matter of defending its own territory, since it practically governs the islands. Japan is now focussing on getting the nation together and patriotic – introducing content that promotes “love for the country” in higher education curriculae. This is will add up to the already very much alive sense of the cultural consciousness that every Japanese bears. Added, in the eyes of many Japanese, Yuki Tatsumi feels, China uses Japan’s wartime atrocities “for political manoeuvring and to extract more diplomatic concessions from Japan”. As Japan realizes this, their take on this whole Senkaku/Daioyu issue hardens against China. For China, it is also a matter of integrating its offspring-like territories, and that would be Taiwan. However, Taiwan is fighting its own battle for sovereignty, so it’d be very natural on Taiwan’s part to decline China’s offer of alliance. Activists from both nations have attempted to go to Senkaku/Daioyu as a part of their demonstration.
The third point would be China asserting its dominance over the region. It has become increasingly evident that though China and US are dependent upon each other in the matters of trade, both want to make clear whose superiority prevails. The reluctance of Chinese surveillance ships around the Senkaku/Daioyu for the purpose of “law enforcement” have been quite a concern to the Japanese, and finally, the establishment of ADIZ made clear the intentions of the Chinese. Following these developments, Japan has decided to nationalize about 280 islands around the main Japanese archipelago – before it is too late.
Added, establishing the ADIZ over the area is also a military strategy, which includes protection of Taiwan from the US forces based in South Korea and Japan. Zachary Keck, from the Diplomat, stresses that “…thus, if China can deny U.S. and allied forces the ability to operate in the waters and airspace covered by the ADIZ, the U.S. would be unable to use its immense military resources in South Korea and Japan in defense of Taiwan.” But that is in case of an armed conflict.
It’d be obvious to many that US will support Japan’s stance no matter what. This vague idea might be supported by US flying two fighter planes through the East China Sea ADIZ, but before going any further, one must just weigh all the elements very carefully. US is supposed to defend Japan and areas it administers, as it agreed to under Article Five of the Mutual Security Treaty. But US is stuck here, in a way. While Japan is an important ally in East Asia, China is an important player in global security issues, such as North Korea, and a major trade partner of the US. Naturally, US would prefer negotiations over an armed conflict. Yuki Tatsumi suggests that US can be broker here, and engage the parties in a “trilateral” dialogue and all the while, remaining neutral on the issue of sovereignty. Clearly, there aren’t a lot of options available, are there?
Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou’s called for talks among the stakeholders to discuss the possibility of jointly developing the seas around the disputed islands and shelving the sovereignty issue. Ma’s initiative – known as the East China Sea Peace Initiative – calls on all parties to refrain from provocations, set aside their differences, maintain dialogue, observe international law and resolve the dispute through peaceful means, reports Kent Wang. Certainly, this seems quite an effort, trying to engage the lords into negotiation by someone rather not-so-lordish.
While a little conflict once in a while might seem entertaining, the consequences that you can anticipate are unsettling. Japan cannot afford this armed incident just now. The economy has been long sluggish and Abe must try focussing on the revival of their economy, while handling this issue through negotiations. This might seem a little impractical to the parties, since the blindfold is already in place and the reason nowhere in sight!
