According to Nvidia CFO Colette Kress, users should expect the shortage of GeForce range GPUs to continue until at least the end of 2021. Noted on a call to investors, Kress stated “We expect demand to continue to exceed supply for much of this year,”. With this problem persisting since the launch of 30 series GPUs in September of 2020, users looking to update or find a new build have been left frustrated, and with good reason.
This shortage of supply doesn’t just apply to Nvidia’s efforts either, with competitor AMD’s Radeon series also suffering from the same issue. With no end in sight, many have been left wondering what the hold up is, and when they could expect to jump back into the scene without paying exorbitant prices to reselling scalpers.
When is a New Card Worth it?
Upgrades to the newest series of cards over older models is rarely a strict necessity, but making the change can be extremely useful depending on the user. While gaming is perhaps the biggest draw for forward-thinking computer enthusiasts, the 30 series has also shown itself to be extremely useful in workstation applications.
Video editing for programs like Adobe Premier is a prime example, as are professional 3D modelling CAD systems. These programs already function well enough on older cards, but they can run into performance concerns when dealing with high-detail or high-bitrate projects. In these instances, the new cards cut down on delay and loading times, increasing efficiency and reducing frustration.
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On the other hand, casual computer users who use their systems for light applications such as live casino games do not need to make a switch. For general uses like these, even the most demanding streaming applications like live roulette, craps, and blackjack operate with cards generations old. In fact, for browsing and streaming systems like this, even an integrated graphics solution would manage, meaning nobody in this realm needs to miss out. Also playing a part is the straight risk of older hardware failure. If an older GPU fails, users will tend not to want to waste their money on an older card, but this year they might have no choice. Compounding this issue is that the lack of supply has driven up demand even for older cards, many of which are only available second-hand for well over RRP.
Unlike most new generations of cards and technology, the 30 series has proved significantly cheaper on the cost to performance scale. The best illustration of this is the king of the prior series, the 2080 Ti. Performance-wise, the 2080 Ti performs about the same as the 3070. The difference here is that while the 2080 Ti retails at about $1,500, the 3070 costs $500. Such a choice wouldn’t be much of a choice at all, that is if the 3070 was in stock.
Creating a Shortage
There are three core reasons for a shortage of new cards, none of which show any sign of slowing anytime soon. The first of these is the lack of manufacturing capacity. Despite so many devices relying on digital systems, there are only a few factories that are capable of the highly specialised chip-production work that the new cards require. With systems like new CPUs, and gaming devices like the PS5 and Xbox Series pulling so much capacity, like they were in previous generations, not a whole lot is left over for the GPU market.
Creating further issues is the drive of the cryptocurrency market, which relies on GPUs to operate. Since the price-performance ratio of these new cards is better than ever, crypto-miners have been buying up stock in bulk. With major operations taking dozens or even hundreds of cards, and Nvidia and AMD doing little to stop them, other consumers miss out.
Further bolstering this problem is the scalping market. With the use of bots, scalpers have managed to attain stock as soon it goes on sale, at a speed that humans alone are not capable of. They then attempt to resell these cards back to users, harming the overall market through the introduction of massive markup. Again, this is an issue that Nvidia and AMD have not addressed in anything other than small and token efforts.
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Collectively, all these factors paint a picture where users looking for a new card will either have to wait or pay extortion-level prices to buy one off a scalper. Neither of these is ideal, nor neither can realistically be addressed in the current state of the market. While we can hope that next year could mitigate the low supply issue, likely, a lack of planning and action by producers and primary sellers could allow the problem to propagate. Bad news for those looking for a new system, as you might have to stick with older cards for a while yet.
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