As the presidential election of one of the most powerful countries in the world, the United States of America (USA) approaches on November 5, 2024, political rallies and campaigning are gearing up.
In this scenario, the opinions and voting trends of one of the highly influential demographics, the Indian Americans, are changing. In which direction is it moving? How can it play a significant role in the upcoming elections? Here’s all you need to know.
To Which Direction Are Voting Trends Of Indian-Americans Moving?
The latest survey, the “2024 Indian-American Attitudes Survey” (IAAS), published close to the day of the election, by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, reveals a significant divide in the voting share of the fast-growing community of Indian-Americans between the Democratic and Republican parties.
The survey claims that 61% of the respondents from this community are aiming to vote for Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate while 31% of them are supporting Donald Trump, the Republican candidate. This shows a noticeable rise in the number of votes to the latter, from 22% while a downfall of votes in the Democratic party from 68% (for Joe Biden), in the previous election cycle, in 2020.
This is an astonishing shift from the traditional practice of supporting the Democrats. The Indian Americans identifying as Democrats have reduced from 56% in 2020 to 47% in 2024 while the political affiliations with the Republicans have remained constant over these years.
The survey’s co-authors, Devesh Kapur, Milan Vaishnav, and Sumitra Badrinathan, also reveal that from a nationally representative sample of 714 Indian-American citizens, younger men born in the USA support the Republicans more than their naturalised counterparts. This support change is seen in those under 40 and thus demonstrates a difference in the opinions of the generations.
The gender of the two presidential candidates is also playing a role in determining the voter preference. The survey says that 67% of Indian-American women support Harris while only 22% of them support Trump. Among men, 53% would vote for Harris and 39% for Trump.
“There is also a growing scepticism among some Indian American men voting for a female president. A new cleavage that didn’t exist before, however, [it] is in line with the larger national trend in the US,” said co-author Vaishnav.
This gap is more visible in the youth. For men under 40 in this community, 48% support the Republican candidate while 44% support the Democratic one, making it the first time in recent history that more Indian men are supporting the former.
Such gaps exist in other age groups as well. “The headline finding of the 2024 IAAS is that Indian Americans remain deeply connected to the Democratic Party but less so since 2020. Six in ten Indian-American citizens plan to vote in favour of Democratic nominee Kamala Harris… However, the Republican Party has made modest inroads, evidenced by the uptick in support for Donald Trump,” said the authors.
Read More: Kamala Harris Has Been Contradictory About Various Issues, But Is She Capable Of Change?
How Can This Shift Affect The Upcoming Elections?
The reason why there is a prominent divide in the voter preference between the two parties in the case of Indian-American citizens is a variety of issues this community prioritises. For example, 17% of them rank inflation as the most concerning issue, followed by 13% who place job security, economy and especially the abortion and reproductive rights issues, next on the list.
It is somewhat surprising that only 4% of these respondents consider the US-India relations as one of the factors determining their votes. Hence, the different stances of Harris and Trump on these issues influence the preferences of this subsection of voters.
Sangay Mishra, an associate professor at Drew University and holding a specialisation in immigrants’ political incorporation reinforces that Trump’s attitude on “illegal and undocumented immigration and a very aggressive populist, nationalist politics” may resonate with a portion of the Indian-American community. “This pitch is primarily aimed at white voters but also trickles down to minorities, especially among men,” added the professor.
Concerning the IAAS paper, he said, “This paper captures the dissatisfaction with the Democratic Party but it does not necessarily mean greater identification with the Republican Party, because within the Indian American community, the Republicans are still associated with the Christian, or white, nationalist position”.
The ongoing offence by Israel in Gaza is also playing a crucial role in determining the voter share. “A large number of young people, particularly young Indian Americans, are disillusioned with the stance that the Democrats have taken on Gaza. There is a lot of conversation about uncommitted voters, or giving a protest vote, to show that people are unhappy with what’s happening in Gaza – and that is influencing at least a section of Indian Americans,” said Mishra.
Now the reason why the thoughts and opinions of this group hold so much importance is they are considered to hold one of the highest socio-economic status in the USA, with a median household income of $153,000, which is double the national average. This is why candidates try to target and influence this section of society during political campaigning.
“Even though the Indian American community is not very big in absolute numbers, they can help swing the decision in one direction or another. There are many states where the community’s population is larger than the margin of victory in the 2020 presidential election,” said one of the co-authors of the paper, Milan Vaishnav.
Moreover, their continuously increasing numbers in the country, currently 5.2 million, raise their importance in the election process. 2.6 million of them are eligible to vote and 96% are very likely to vote, thus making them a reliable group.
“Although Indian-Americans hold a dim view of many prominent Republican leaders, the party’s disadvantage with Indian-Americans goes beyond personalities,” says the report.
“While Harris has long identified as an African-American woman, she also acknowledges and embraces her Indian heritage,” it adds.
Therefore, as per the survey, the probability of US-born Indian-Americans voting for Trump is higher than their naturalised counterparts, who are more likely to go for Harris.
Image Credits: Google Images
Sources: Firstpost, Al Jazeera, NDTV
This post is tagged under: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Democratic, Republican, party, Indian American, USA, India, FiveThirtyEight, Israel, Gaza, political, campaign, rally, socioeconomic, Drew University, 2024 Indian-American Attitudes Survey, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Devesh Kapur, Milan Vaishnav, and Sumitra Badrinathan, Sangay Mishra, associate professor
Disclaimer: We do not hold any right, or copyright over any of the images used, these have been taken from Google. In case of credits or removal, the owner may kindly mail us.
Other Recommendations:
What Was Kamala Harris Trying To Listen To With Her Alleged Spy Earrings?
