Recent serological surveys done in some areas in Delhi and Mumbai show that the Indian population is gradually developing resistance against coronavirus due to community transmission of disease.
In slum areas like Dahisar and Chembur, about 57 per cent of the population has antibodies that provide protection to people who still have not contracted the disease. This is called herd immunity or social immunity.
In other words, when a large proportion of the population in an area develops immunity against the disease, the chances of the spread of disease slows down. In a case like this, first, there is a rapid spurt in the number of infections, then gradually this number declines as the whole community indirectly develops immunity.
As the total number of COVID-19 cases hit the 15 lakhs landmark, many people think that India might soon achieve herd immunity. Some have even asked the government to resume normal social functioning to allow the spread of infection in an attempt to develop social immunity.
However, this appears to be a controversial issue. When Borris Johnson, UK Prime Minister unveiled herd immunity as the state’s official policy to combat coronavirus infection, he had faced fierce resentment and backlash. Later on, they decided to back-off from their initial plan as scientists predicted that this strategy might lead to the death of millions.
Intricacies of the concept of herd immunity
For building immunity in a society, a certain amount of people in a society must be capable enough to develop the illness and come out of it safe and sound. This is called the threshold proportion.
If the number of people having the infection is beyond this level, the chances of spread of disease slowly decline, and the rest of the population indirectly develops invulnerability.
The proportion of the population that needs to get the disease to develop herd immunity is difficult to estimate due to a lack of reliable research studies.
Read more: IMA Confirms India Enters Community Transmission Stage, These States Most At Risk
A study, published in the journal Science and conducted by mathematicians from the University of Nottingham and the University of Stockholm suggested that the threshold percentage of the population who need to be infected to develop this kind of immunity was 43% and not 60%, as conjectured earlier.
Is building herd immunity an effective strategy for India?
The Health Ministry informed that deliberately allowing the masses to get the illness is not a feasible option, given India’s unique conditions.
India has a massive population and the amount of people who need to get infected in a bid to achieve herd immunity is thus massive as well. A cost-benefit analysis renders this strategy futile.
Also, Indian medical infrastructure is not good enough to handle a gigantic surge in COVID-19 cases that attempts at herd immunity are likely to produce.
Scientists also suggest that herd immunity in India might be short-lived due to gaps in socio-economic conditions prevailing in various parts of the country. The Indian population, moreover, is highly mobile and thus immunity that has developed in a certain place may not last long.
The solution to the problem
The government has embraced the fact that the removal of social restrictions to develop herd immunity can reap disastrous results.
Hence, it is committed to the policy of developing immunity through vaccinations. It also aims at expanding its testing and hospitalization amenities.
In this regard, Rajesh Bhushan, an official working in the Health Ministry said that “Herd immunity can only be achieved through immunisation and till then COVID-19 appropriate behaviour is the only way forward”.
Apart from this, maintaining hope and courage to act wisely is the need of the hour. Hence, we all must voluntarily wear masks and comply with social distancing norms set by the government in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak.
Image credits: Google images
Sources: The Hindu, Financial Express, Times of India + more
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This post is tagged under: herd immunity india, indian population, cost benefit analysis, hospitals, surge in cases, handle the rise in cases, doctors, health infrastructure, india’s unique condition, covid 19, coronavirus, health ministry, will herd immunity work in india, when will herd immunity happen in india
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