When Bangladesh’s Sheikh Hasina was forced out of power, it marked more than just the end of her tenure. Over the years, Bangladesh and India built strong trade and diplomatic relations under her leadership.
From rebuilding routes linking the two countries to cooperating with India’s security decisions, Hasina’s tenure brought tangible benefits to New Delhi. However, with the election of a new government, India is left with one central question: can it trust Bangladesh’s new leadership the way it trusted the previous one?
The Rise of a New Political Force
In the country’s first election following Hasina’s ouster, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), led by Tarique Rahman, secured victory.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi took to X to congratulate Rahman, stating:
“I convey my warm congratulations to Mr Tarique Rahman on leading the BNP to a decisive victory in the parliamentary elections in Bangladesh.
This victory shows the trust of the people of Bangladesh in your leadership. India will continue to stand in support of a democratic, progressive and inclusive Bangladesh. I look forward to working with you to strengthen our multifaceted relations and advance our common development goals.”
The statement signals diplomatic openness, but does it guarantee smooth relations?
India’s History with the BNP
India’s past interactions with the BNP have been complicated. Under Khaleda Zia (1991–1996 and 2001–2006), relations were often strained.
Key tensions included:
- Disputes over water-sharing agreements
- Cross-border security concerns
- Allegations that insurgent groups operating in India’s northeast found shelter during the BNP rule
- Rejection of overland connectivity and Indian transit to the northeastern states
In short, India – BNP relations have historically lacked the warmth seen during Hasina’s tenure. With Tarique Rahman’s return to power, bilateral ties are once again under scrutiny.
What the New Government Means for India
1. The “Bangladesh First” Agenda
The BNP has pledged a “Bangladesh First” policy, inspired by the United States “America First” model. Rahman has stated that Bangladesh will maintain balanced relations with regional powers, including India and Pakistan.
For India, this signals a more neutral stance compared to the interim phase under Muhammad Yunus, whose administration was perceived by some analysts as tilting toward Pakistan and China.
2. New Delhi – Dhaka Relations
Relations between New Delhi and Dhaka have faced strain since Hasina’s exile in India, and the political unrest that followed. Anti-Hindu protests in Bangladesh further complicated the atmosphere.
However, some analysts argue that the BNP’s return may provide an opportunity for structured engagement.
As journalist Deep Halder observed, a BNP-led government may be preferable to a Jamaat-led alternative, which could have presented a more ideologically challenging dynamic for India.
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3. The Pakistan – China Factor
A stronger Islamist or Jamaat-led influence might have shifted Bangladesh more decisively toward Pakistan or China, potentially complicating India’s northeastern security landscape.
While the BNP has historically had its frictions with India, it is widely considered more pragmatic than more hardline alternatives. This may offer India diplomatic space to renegotiate cooperation frameworks.
4. The Situation of Hindus in Bangladesh
Following Hasina’s removal, attacks on Hindu minorities reportedly increased. Hindus constitute roughly 8% of Bangladesh’s population. Incidents such as the mob killing of Dipu Chandra heightened concerns about minority safety.
The Rahman-led government has pledged protection for minorities. Rahman stated:
“Religion is individual, but the state belongs to everyone.”
For India, minority protection remains both a humanitarian and political priority in its bilateral engagement.
What the Future Holds
Despite a complicated past with the BNP, India appears willing to reset ties under the new leadership. Future relations will likely revolve around:
- Security cooperation
- Trade and connectivity
- Counterterrorism coordination
- Minority protection
For now, New Delhi has expressed optimism. Whether this marks the beginning of a more balanced and durable partnership depends on how both governments navigate their historical mistrust and evolving regional dynamics.
The coming years will determine whether this political transition becomes a setback or an opportunity in India–Bangladesh relations.
Image Credits: Google Images
Sources: Mint, Times of India, BBC
Find the blogger: @shubhangichoudhary_29
This post is tagged under: Bangladesh, India-Bangladesh relations, South Asia politics, Bangladesh politics, India foreign policy, geopolitics, South Asian geopolitics, BNP, Tarique Rahman, regional security, minority rights, diplomacy, international relations, India news, Bangladesh news
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