President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire, but that is far from the end, at least for India. After his last post about wiping out “a whole civilisation” on 7 April 2026, Trump almost shocked the world with his abrupt turn. A two-week ceasefire with Iran, just a few hours before his own deadline.
While it might seem as though the ceasefire could, maybe, end the sudden hike in oil prices, the continuous war strikes, or could lead to the opening of diplomatic routes, the two-week deadline makes it all seem like a blur.
And that’s exactly why India is on her toes.
Why the War is About More Than Just a War Between the US and Iran
At first glance, the war seemed like an escalated fight between two nations, until it seeped into every household in India. A war between the US and Iran quickly led to havoc in the fuel market, raising prices, surging shipping costs, and disrupting India’s economic register in just a few days. And this is why it starts getting complicated.
India’s energy security is at stake: The Strait of Hormuz remains a big concern for India. Earlier, Trump’s threat to Iran, saying, “Open the F**n Strait, you crazy b****s, or you’ll be living in Hell – JUST WATCH!”, signalled how central the Strait is to the conflict, and to India. With about 50 per cent of India’s crude oil supply passing through the Strait of Hormuz, even temporary disruptions can cause India to pay the price.
Pakistan’s role in the US-Iran diplomacy: Amidst the clash between the US and Iran, Pakistan stepped up its diplomatic role. In a public appeal, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif urged both countries to pause, following which Trump announced the ceasefire.
The Foreign Minister of Iran, Abbas Araghchi, made a social media post acknowledging Pakistan with “gratitude and appreciation” for its “tireless efforts to end the war in the region.” This diplomatic intervention by Pakistan has kept India watching closely.
Asim Munir’s role: In a social media post, US President Donald Trump announced, “Based on conversations with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir, of Pakistan, and wherein they requested that I hold off the destructive force being sent tonight to Iran, and subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz, I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks.” So, if Pakistan keeps asserting its position in global diplomacy, it might alter India’s strategic relations with the US.
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India-Pakistan’s ongoing issues: India and Pakistan are already in a standoff over the Indus Valley Treaty signed in 1960, and amidst this, Pakistan’s growing involvement in global issues could put India in a staggering position.
India’s stance against Pakistan: Following the Pahalgam attack, India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty was a retaliatory action against Pakistan’s terrorism. According to India, “Water and blood cannot flow together”, and therefore, it was announced that India will keep the Treaty in abeyance until Pakistan credibly and irrevocably renounces its support for cross-border terrorism.
Additionally, climate change, demographic shifts, and technological advancements have created new realities on the ground. However, India fears that, with Pakistan stepping up its diplomatic involvement, this could be used to manipulate India’s stance against terrorism.
The ongoing arbitration under the treaty: With the treaty under strong scrutiny, India agreed to a ruling by a Neutral Expert. As per the statement by the Ministry of External Affairs in early January 2025, “India welcomes the decision given by the Neutral Expert under Paragraph 7 of Annexure F to the Indus Waters Treaty, 1960.
The decision upholds and vindicates India’s stand that all seven (07) questions that were referred to the Neutral Expert, in relation to the Kishenganga and Ratle hydroelectric projects, are differences falling within his competence under the Treaty.” However, with Pakistan’s growing position, India remains focused on the impending decisions.
India’s silence over treaty compliance: In October 2025, several UN Special Rapporteurs raised formal questions to the Government of India about its actions related to the treaty and asked New Delhi to explain its compliance with international obligations. However, India remains silent on the question to this day, raising concerns over India’s diplomatic standing.
India’s West Asia ties: India’s ties with West Asia are deliberately well balanced, as nearly 40 to 50 per cent of its crude oil supplies pass through the Strait of Hormuz; this crisis, however, has put this balance to the test.
While this two-week ceasefire might seem like monetary relief, a war thousands of kilometres away is keeping India alert. In a situation like this, what is required of India is to consciously observe developments because this could be a make-or-break situation for its regional ties.
Image Credits: Google Images
Sources: The Business Standard, The Economic Times, The Print
Find the blogger: @shubhangichooudhary_29
This post is tagged under: India on alert, US Iran ceasefire, Strait of Hormuz, India oil supply risk, West Asia crisis, Trump Iran ceasefire, India energy security, India Pakistan diplomacy, Indus Waters Treaty, global oil prices India, Pakistan role US Iran, Asim Munir diplomacy, Shehbaz Sharif Iran ceasefire, India West Asia relations, India crude oil imports, geopolitics India 2026, Middle East crisis India impact, India strategic concerns, war impact on India, what it means for India
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