The protests in Bangladesh have turned huge with Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina resigning and fleeing the country in a shocking turn of events. Sheikh Hasina has been an ally of New Delhi for 15 long years. The escape of Hasina from Bangladesh means that an important ally has been deposed of power which will have a significant effect on India and cooperation between the two countries.
Prime Minister Hasina arrived in India on the day of her resignation. She planned to move to London but the British Government warned her that she might not get legal protection from investigations that would ensue in the UN following the human rights violation in Bangladesh, in Britain.
With this, the probable strategy for Hasina is to stay in India, however, is it okay for India to provide refuge to Hasina in the country?
Why Did Sheikh Hasina Flee?
University of Dhaka and Chittagong students in Bangladesh began their protests on July 1, 2024, against the 30% reservations given to children of war veterans who participated in the 1971 Bangladesh Liberation War.
The other marginalised groups, disabled, and ethnic minorities are also given reservations but the protests are mainly directed to end the reservations for the families of war veterans.
According to a report in Al-Jazeera, these students are not backed by any political party, and the protestors are united under the Students Against Discrimination movement.
Reuters reported, Nahid Islam, the coordinator of the anti-quota protests, said, “We are not against the quota system in general, but we want the 30 percent quota for the descendants of 1971 freedom fighters to be abolished. Government jobs are the only hope for many young people in Bangladesh, and this quota system is depriving them of opportunities.”
Notably, the quota system was removed by Hasina in the year 2018 but a court order on June 5, deemed this abolition null and void. The protestors alleged that this quota system would unfairly benefit the supporters of PM Sheikh Hasina and would be discriminatory to others.
The protests turned violent after Hasina responded to the question of the quota system in a press conference, “If the grandchildren of freedom fighters do not receive [quota] benefits, who would get it? The grandchildren of Razakars?” Razakars is a term that is used for people who colluded with the Pakistani military in the Liberation War.
After the Supreme Court eliminated most of the quota system on July 21, the protests had paused. However, protesters returned last week, demanding a public apology from Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina for the violence, the restoration of internet connections, the reopening of colleges and universities, and the release of those arrested.
By the weekend, the demonstrations had escalated into a movement calling for Hasina’s resignation, as protesters demanded justice for those killed last month. The student group, with a single objective of Hasina’s resignation, declared a nationwide non-cooperation movement starting Sunday.
Protesters blamed Hasina’s government for the violence during the July protests. Over 11,000 people had been arrested. Her government was accused of using excessive force by critics and human rights groups. However, the government claimed that the allegations were bogus.
Initially, Hasina and her government claimed that students were not involved in the violence during the quota protests, blaming the Islamist party Jamaat-e-Islami and the main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) for the clashes and arson.
After violence flared again on Sunday, Hasina said, “Those who are carrying out violence are not students but terrorists who want to destabilise the nation.” The Bengali-language newspaper Prothom Alo reported that Sunday’s clashes resulted in at least 101 deaths, including 14 policemen. In response to the violence, authorities shut down mobile internet services and imposed an indefinite nationwide curfew.
The student group rejected Hasina’s offer for talks to resolve the crisis. Following weeks of deadly protests that began with student demonstrations against government job quotas and grew into a movement demanding her resignation, Sheikh Hasina resigned as Bangladesh’s prime minister and fled the country on Monday. She landed in India soon after.
Is It Good For India To Let Her Stay?
There is already a strong anti-India feeling in Bangladesh, partly because people think India helped Hasina stay in power. This will make it even harder for India to reset its relationship with the new government.
Many Bangladeshis might view India’s support for Hasina as interference in their domestic politics, which could lead to increased hostility towards India. This could make it more difficult for India to build positive relations with the new Bangladeshi government.
Hasina’s presence in India might embolden insurgent groups operating along the India-Bangladesh border. These groups could exploit the political turmoil and anti-India sentiment to increase their activities, posing security challenges for India. The new government might not maintain the cooperation that existed under Hasina to keep the border calm.
Former foreign secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla told ANI, “An unstable Bangladesh can add to instability in parts of our country, which we do not want to see. So, a peaceful, prosperous, stable Bangladesh is (in) India’s best (interest). It is very important that we work with all concerned to ensure that our interests and those of Bangladesh are secured.”
The former Indian High Commissioner to Bangladesh, Pinak Ranjan Chakravarty cautioned that India is likely to face a “period of instability,” which is detrimental for Bangladesh. He further emphasised, “It is also not good for the region. India will be watching what is going to happen.”
An unnamed diplomat, quoted by the BBC, remarked, “India doesn’t have too many options at this point in time. We have to tighten control on our borders. Anything else would be construed as interference.”
Michael Kugelman of the Wilson Centre, an American think-tank, told the BBC, “India will have to watch and wait nervously. It may support free and fair elections in the interest of stability, but it doesn’t want the Bangladesh Nationalist Party – even if it has grown weak and divided – to return. Delhi likely wouldn’t oppose a long period of interim rule for that reason.”
Read More: ResearchED: Bangladesh At 50: How India’s Relationship Has Developed With Its Neighbour Over The Years
What Will The Effects On Trade and Security Be?
Sheikh Hasina’s resignation after 17 years as Bangladesh’s prime minister is a big issue for India. She was a strong supporter of India in a region where India has difficult neighbours like Pakistan and unstable relationships with Nepal and Sri Lanka.
Under Hasina, India and Bangladesh worked closely on defence. For example, a month ago, Bangladesh made a deal with an Indian defence shipyard to build a big ocean-going tugboat. They were also discussing buying more defence equipment from India.
The Indian military trained Bangladeshi personnel, which helped strengthen ties. However, with Hasina gone, the new interim government might not want to continue these defence agreements. This could be a problem for India, especially because the two countries share a long border of over 4,000 kilometres.
Hasina helped keep this border calm by not allowing insurgent groups to use Bangladesh as a base. There are concerns that without her, these groups might become more active again.
According to the Times of India, “Despite China’s expanding influence in Bangladesh, Dhaka’s bilateral defence ties with New Delhi were on an upswing. But everything is in a state of flux now.”
Bangladesh is India’s largest trading partner in the subcontinent, with trade between the two countries reaching $13 billion in 2023-24. They were discussing a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) to boost trade further.
A 2012 World Bank paper suggested that an FTA could increase Bangladesh’s exports to India by 182%. However, it’s unclear if the new government will continue these discussions.
India and Bangladesh also worked on infrastructure projects like the Akhaura-Agartala cross-border rail link, which cut travel time significantly. With the political changes in Bangladesh, these projects might face delays or cancellations. The future of bus routes between the two countries is also uncertain.
China is likely to use the political instability in Bangladesh to increase its influence. This is a concern for India because China has already taken advantage of unrest in other neighbouring countries like Sri Lanka, Myanmar, and Afghanistan. If China gains more influence in Bangladesh, it could challenge India’s strategic interests in the region.
The Economic Times noted that unfriendly neighbours surround India: “China and Pakistan to the west and north, a communist-led government in Nepal, Taliban-controlled Afghanistan to the far west, an anti-India Maldives in the Indian Ocean, and a potentially ambivalent regime in Bangladesh. This scenario would be detrimental to India’s strategic considerations.”
Sheikh Hasina’s abrupt departure from Bangladesh has not only shifted the political landscape within the country but also posed significant challenges for India. As New Delhi grapples with the loss of its long-time ally, it must navigate a complex web of regional tensions and public sentiment.
The growing anti-India sentiment in Bangladesh, coupled with the controversial decision to offer Hasina asylum, complicates India’s task of rebuilding diplomatic relations. Moving forward, India will need to carefully strategize to restore its influence and foster a stable partnership with its neighbouring country, while addressing the underlying grievances that have surfaced during this tumultuous period.
Image Credits: Google Images
Feature image designed by Saudamini Seth
Sources: Business Standard, India Today, FirstPost
This post is tagged under: Bangladesh Protests, Sheikh Hasina, Quota Reform, Bangladesh Politics, South Asia News, Geopolitics, Human Rights, India Bangladesh Relations, Political Crisis, Protest News, Ouster, Bangladesh, Quota System
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