When Poland scrambled its fighter jets in September 2025 to shoot down 19 suspected Russian drones with NATO backing, it became the first time the Western alliance fired shots in its own defence since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk told parliament this was “the closest we have been to open conflict since World War Two.” His caveat, that he saw “no reason to believe we’re on the brink of war,” did little to calm nerves across Europe.
For the first time, NATO territory itself had been directly defended under fire. This isn’t just Poland’s problem. Drone incursions into Lithuania, debris falling in Romania, and fighter jets violating Finland’s airspace all point to a worrying pattern: Russia is testing the boundaries of NATO’s eastern flank.
The question is whether these provocations add up to a creeping new warfront.
NATO’s Unwilling Frontline
The Polish Air Force confirmed that at least three drones were shot down over Lublin Voivodeship, while others were forced back. One drone hit a residential home in Wyryki, rendering it uninhabitable. According to NATO, allied Dutch F-35s and Italian AWACS planes also joined the mission, making it a joint defensive act.
“This is not an isolated accident but a deliberate provocation,” Poland’s Defence Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz said in Warsaw. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte added, “Our air defences worked as designed and ensured the protection of allied territory.”
The fact that Poland invoked Article 4 of NATO, a consultation clause used only eight times in NATO’s 75-year history, shows just how seriously Warsaw sees the threat.
Airspace Incursions Across Eastern Europe
Poland’s experience mirrors others in the region. Lithuania shot down two armed drones in July 2025, one carrying over 2 kilograms of explosives, forcing a temporary airspace closure near Belarus.
Romania has repeatedly found debris from Russian drones after attacks on Ukrainian ports along the Danube, while Latvia has raised alarms about missile overshoots..
Finland, NATO’s newest member, accused Russia of violating its airspace twice in two months during the summer.
Experts argue these violations are not random. Lithuanian security adviser Kęstutis Budrys warned, “Each drone that crosses a NATO border is a political signal, not a navigational error.” The concern is that with repeated “tests,” one miscalculation could trigger NATO’s Article 5, its collective defence clause, something that would shift the war from Ukraine to Europe itself.
Exercises Or Escalation?
Coinciding with the Polish drone incident were Zapad-2025 military drills, a massive Russia-Belarus exercise involving simulated nuclear strikes and the showcasing of Moscow’s new Oreshnik hypersonic missiles. Polish leaders immediately closed all Belarus border crossings, while Lithuania and Latvia boosted troop deployments.
According to Belarusian media, Zapad-2025 involves tens of thousands of troops and includes mock scenarios of invading NATO territory. For Warsaw, these aren’t just drills. “It is theatre with real-world consequences,” a Polish security analyst told the Financial Times. The shadow of Zapad feeds fears that Russia is using exercises as cover for hybrid tactics – drone intrusions, espionage, and border destabilisation.
Espionage And Intelligence Wars
In the same week as Zapad-2025, Belarus claimed to have arrested a Polish national carrying classified documents about the exercises. Warsaw hit back, announcing the detention of a Belarusian officer allegedly spying on NATO installations, and expelled a Belarusian diplomat. Similar cases have been reported in Romania and the Czech Republic.
“This is a very good illustration that we need to be not only vigilant but decisive in our actions,” said Peter Bátor, Slovakia’s former ambassador to NATO. Hybrid conflict, rather than all-out war, appears to be Russia’s chosen play.
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NATO’s Dilemma And Global Stakes
While NATO leaders praised Poland’s restraint, defence experts remain concerned. Riki Ellison, an American missile-defence specialist, cautioned, “This is not the beginning of World War Three, but it will shock the NATO alliance.” According to the Atlantic Council, the incident coincided with Russia’s largest drone and missile barrage of the war, suggesting Moscow was probing NATO’s limits.
For countries like India, these developments matter. Eastern Europe is a vital corridor for trade, energy routes, and defence partnerships. Escalation could affect global fuel prices and supply chains, something New Delhi watched closely during the 2022 Ukraine war when crude oil volatility forced tough economic choices.
Strategically, India also balances ties with both Russia and Europe, making stability in Eastern Europe critical for its foreign policy calculus.
India’s Strategic Dilemma
For India, the rising tension on NATO’s eastern flank is not just a distant European problem. Russia remains one of New Delhi’s biggest defence suppliers; over 45% of India’s military equipment is of Russian origin, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
At the same time, India has deepening economic and security ties with the European Union, now its third-largest trading partner, with bilateral trade surpassing $135 billion in 2023. Any escalation in Eastern Europe risks squeezing India’s balancing act between Moscow and Brussels.
The war has already reshaped India’s energy security. During 2022–23, India emerged as one of the largest buyers of discounted Russian crude, helping it curb inflation at home. But renewed instability could drive up global oil prices again, undermining India’s economic recovery.
Strategically, India also has a stake in stability: it sits in forums with both Russia (BRICS, SCO) and Western partners (Quad, G20). An uncontrolled escalation in Eastern Europe would make India’s careful neutrality harder to sustain and may force sharper choices in its foreign policy.
So, is a new warfront opening in Eastern Europe? Not in the conventional sense of tanks and trenches, but in the grey zone of drones, espionage, and military exercises, the frontline has already shifted. Poland’s invocation of NATO’s mechanisms, Lithuania’s shootdowns, and Finland’s protests show a pattern of creeping escalation.
The stakes are high not only for NATO but for the wider world. Each drone that crosses into NATO airspace inches the world closer to a confrontation.
For Eastern Europe, this is no longer a distant war in Ukraine but a daily test of resilience. For countries like India, watching from afar, these tremors remind us that the battle lines of global security are increasingly blurred and one misstep could redraw them altogether.
Images: Google Images
Sources: Al Jazeera, The Guardian, The New York Times
Find the blogger: Katyayani Joshi
This post is tagged under: Russia Ukraine war, NATO Eastern Europe, Poland Russia tensions, Drone warfare, Global security, Geopolitics explained, India foreign policy, India Russia relations, India EU relations, Zapad 2025, NATO Article 4, World War Two parallels, European security, Global oil prices, Hybrid warfare, Espionage and drones, International relations, Strategic affairs, Global diplomacy, India perspective
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