Donald Trump is set to enter the White House in January next year as the 47th President of the United States.
This re-election comes with several opportunities as well as risks for India. Focussing on the risk aspect, can Trump’s policies affect India negatively? If yes, how?
Here’s a clearer picture.
Anti-Immigration Policies:
On October 22, 2024, a large-scale chartered flight was arranged by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to repatriate several Indian nationals “who did not establish legal basis to remain in the United States.” Moreover, the assistant secretary for Border and Immigration Policy at the DHS, Royce Murray revealed that 1,100 Indian citizens were repatriated from the US in the last fiscal year.
Donald Trump, who secured the majority votes this election also because of his strong stance on immigration, is expected to target cross-border flows as soon as he starts his second, non-consecutive term as the President.
Trump has aimed to reduce irregular migration and carry out the “largest domestic deportation operation in American history”. According to Pew Research Centre, a non-partisan American think tank, about 725,000 Indians were living in the US without credible legal authorization in 2021, making them the third largest group in this category.
The US Customs and Border Protection has revealed that an average of 10 Indian nationals have been arrested every hour while trying to cross the US borders illegally this year.
Parikshit Patel, a visa consultant from Gujarat said, “Trump administration might make it harder to cross into the US through Mexico or Canada, but we are hopeful Indians might not face the same scrutiny. Trump may not see us as a burden as many Indian immigrants come ready to work and earn our keep, unlike migrants from other countries who must be provided food and lodging till the legalities are worked out.”
Adding on, Trump’s “Buy American, Hire American” policy of 2017 caused the rejection of a plethora of H-1B visas (a type of visa that thousands of Indian tech professionals apply for to work in the US), affecting many foreigners.
Therefore, Trump’s immigration strategy, which he has described as using heavy troops for immigration enforcement and border security purposes will be a roadblock for those who are planning on taking the donkey route.
Read More: Who Will The Indian American Community Vote For? Trump Or Harris?
Economic Policies:
The economic and trade policies Trump takes are going to be key features that define the relationship between India and the US.
The US Treasury Department recently imposed sanctions on 19 Indian entities for allegedly supplying “dual use” technologies to Russia. The question is, how will Trump’s victory make any difference in such a case?
“If you abandon the dollar, you’re not doing business with the United States because we will impose a 100 percent tariff on your goods,” said Trump at a rally in Wisconsin.
India has benefitted immensely by trading in local currency with Russia. Payments in the rupee for purchasing imports from Russia have surpassed India’s exports to the country.
The two nations are also aiming to explore a dynamic reference rate (an interest rate benchmark used to set other interest rates) to commence a rupee-rouble market. Moreover, India and UAE (United Arab Emirates) already have a mechanism in place for settling trades in non-dollar currencies.
As India is trying to strengthen its INR value, Trump’s plan to impose a 100% tariff on goods from countries retiring from using the dollar in international trade is going to be a barrier. Since the US is one of the most important destinations for Indian exports, high tariffs can disrupt Indian economic growth.
However, at the same time, various golden opportunities might also be lining up for India with Trump’s re-election. Donald Trump’s re-election has been perceived as healthy for India due to his friendly relations with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The latter congratulated Trump on his win, calling him a “friend” and expressing his aim to improve India-US cooperation.
“It seems as if he (Donald Trump) is coming back. I think the official declaration is imminent…The truth is that we’ve had the experience of Mr Trump as president for four years already, so there shouldn’t be too many surprises. We know that he’s a very transactional leader… He’s very tough on trade…
He has been very friendly with Mr Modi and the government of India. He’s been tough on China, which, of course, given our troubles with China, is not bad for us. So I think these are the kinds of things we can expect based on his existing track record,” former diplomat Shashi Tharoor had said.
A report released a few months ago by Nomura, a market research firm, said, “India and the US share deep economic and strategic interests that are unlikely to be compromised, irrespective of the election outcome. The US also sees India as a strategic counterweight to China on foreign policy.
India is a large, domestic demand-driven economy, so the economic fallout of weaker US economic growth should be limited. Any frictions on trade and immigration will likely be more than offset by the gains accruing to India from the ongoing supply chain shifts, as de-risking from China gathers momentum under a Trump presidency.”
The diplomatic relations between India and the US, the world’s two largest democracies, have evolved over the years as both countries aim to cooperate and maintain a peaceful relationship.
Image Credits: Google Images
Sources: The Economic Times, The Hindu, Business Standard
This post is tagged under: India, US, Donald Trump, Narendra Modi, elections, economic, immigration, policies, relations, visa
Disclaimer: We do not hold any right, or copyright over any of the images used, these have been taken from Google. In case of credits or removal, the owner may kindly mail us.
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