The United States and Israel are still engaged in a war-like situation with Iran. Iran, on its side, is refusing to back down. Gulf countries and those with US military bases are being targeted. The biggest question now is, how long will this go on, how will it end, and why is India being pulled in the middle?
With no clear finish line in sight, a conflict analyst is now warning that the region’s Pandora’s box has not merely been opened; the hinges, she says, have been ripped off entirely.
Dr. Comfort Ero, president and CEO of the International Crisis Group (ICG), sat down with Firstpost at the Synergia Conclave 2026 in New Delhi on March 13 to deliver a sweeping and sobering assessment of the West Asia war, how it started, why it has not ended, and who might be best placed to bring it to a close.
Iran Was Ready, And It Is Not Backing Down
When the US and Israel launched the first strikes, many in Washington anticipated a rapid collapse — either an internal implosion of the Iranian regime or a desperate plea for a ceasefire. Neither happened. Under the new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran has declared its readiness for a long war.
Ero argues this resilience was not born of desperation but of preparation. “Iran was ready for this war. Especially after the 12-day war of 2025,” she told Firstpost.
“It understood that there would be a second round. It understood that Israel, particularly, would want to come back for another go. It didn’t have much faith in diplomacy, but neither did Israel and neither did the United States as well.”
The 12-day war she references, a June 2025 conflict in which Israel launched surprise airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and military facilities, killing key military leaders, before the US intervened with Operation Midnight Hammer, had, in Ero’s reading, put Tehran on notice that a larger confrontation was coming.
The transition of power to Mojtaba Khamenei, far from signalling weakness, has been used by the regime to project strength.
“Iran is angry, is emboldened. It also has a victory narrative. It is resilient. It hasn’t been decapitated. It hasn’t collapsed,” Ero said.
This, she argues, is the central problem for the US “victory” narrative. Washington may wish to declare the mission accomplished, but Tehran is nowhere near admitting defeat.
Nobody Actually Knows What Trump Wants
If Iran’s position is hardening, the American position is something far more unsettling: it is shifting by the hour. Ero was blunt about the confusion emanating from the White House.
“We actually don’t know what Trump wants,” she said.
“The goals shift every day, by the hour, by the second. There are sometimes contradictions among himself, in his own mind, and between himself and his own team around him.”
She outlined how American war objectives have already shifted dramatically: “We’ve gone from nuclear to ballistic to unconditional surrender to regime change, regime light, to a Delcy moment — similar to Venezuela. And even the Israelis are privately admitting that they may not get regime change.”
Ero also raised a pointed question about a key missed opportunity. The assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei within the first few hours of the operation on February 28 was widely seen as a defining early win. Why, she asked, did the US not use that moment to declare victory and withdraw?
“In many ways, he could have declared victory and gone after he brought down Khamenei,” she said. “Somebody who most Americans would agree was a defining enemy — to see this one leader assassinated on day one within hours of the attack. Take that rally and go home.”
The fact that the conflict has persisted well beyond that moment, she suggested, reveals a more complex, and possibly more confused, set of objectives driving Washington.
Read More: Why Isn’t Gold Soaring With Middle East Turmoil?
Oil Prices, Not Military Maps, Will Decide When This Ends
For Ero, the most likely trigger for a US off-ramp is not a military breakthrough but an economic one. Trump, she argues, is watching the numbers at the gas pump far more closely than the battle maps.
“He’ll be looking at the energy, the oil spike, and concerns about the economy. He’s doing this a few months ahead of the midterms. So he can quickly define what the matrix looks like,” she explained.
The US has already taken the unusual step of lifting some sanctions to allow for the flow of Russian oil — a pragmatic, ideologically inconsistent move aimed at stabilising prices that Ero reads as a clear signal of where Trump’s true priorities lie.
“The matrix for Trump — and what may allow him to turn around and say ‘I’m done here, we’re finished’ — is those oil prices. It’s the energy shocks. It’s the fact that at the pump, ordinary Americans will be feeling the pain,” she said.
Ero also noted that the US had allowed India to continue negotiating access to Russian oil, recognising that a collapse of the Indian energy market would be a strategic disaster for Washington’s Indo-Pacific goals.
The fate of Kharg Island, Iran’s primary oil export terminal, adds another layer of complexity. Striking it would devastate Tehran’s revenue, but would also send global oil prices into an uncontrollable spiral, a risk even Trump may be unwilling to take.
“The number of calculations that are playing out in Trump’s mind — and he keeps telling us ‘in two weeks, in a few weeks time’ — we simply don’t know. And you really have to get a degree in the psychology of Trump to understand,” she quipped.
The Gulf States Are Paying the Price, And Losing Trust in Everyone
The regional fallout has been severe for Gulf states, which find themselves caught as unwilling collateral damage. Despite early warnings from Saudi Arabia and its neighbours that they would not serve as launch pads for US strikes, the kinetic reality of the war has dragged them in regardless.
“The trust deficit has gone down with Iran, but it’s also gone down with the United States as well. The trust deficit has also gone down with Israel. They do not want to see a situation where Israel is the hegemon in the region. And they will be building and reviewing their own security guarantees,” Ero said.
The normalisation process, the idea that regional peace could be brokered through economic deals alone, is, according to Ero, now “off the table.” The conflict has also triggered a mounting humanitarian crisis, with the UN reporting 84,000 refugees pouring into Syria alongside returning Syrians, as renewed hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon create a multi-front disaster.
“The question is, have we also opened old wounds that will be difficult to manage? So it’s a huge gambit. The Pandora’s box has been opened. Can you squash it all back in? I don’t think so. I think we’re in for a difficult few months,” she warned.
India’s Role In This War
In her search for “circuit breakers” to stop the escalation, Ero pointed directly to India, and to the broader Global South, as the best hope for restoring dialogue. Traditional mediators, she noted, have been sidelined by the sheer scale of the violence.
“Every country has an interest and should be thinking about how we get back to dialogue, how we open lines of communication, back-channelling, who can talk to who, who can whisper to who, and who can convince all three actors — Israel, the US and Iran,” she told Firstpost.
On where the war ends, Ero pointed to security guarantees as the central condition.
“I think they need to hear that there’s not going to be a return, a third attempt. They want security guarantees but that itself is a dilemma,” she said, adding that any resolution would also require clear monitoring of the nuclear programme, limits on Iran’s missile reach, and commitments that proxies like Hezbollah and the Houthis would not be remobilised.
She also noted the deeply personal dimension of Trump’s dealmaking instincts.
“In the end, it’s the personal relationship that Trump so desires as well,” she observed, adding that while hopes of a presidential conversation in Ankara in late January had not materialised, “the Iranians did not bite”, such a channel cannot be entirely ruled out.
Ero’s call for Indian involvement has been echoed loudly by global voices. Retired US military official Colonel Douglas MacGregor, speaking on a podcast with Tucker Carlson, was direct: “To stop the US-Israel-Iran war, we need an intermediary, and preferably the Prime Minister of India, Narendra Modi.”
Finland’s President Alexander Stubb has also raised the topic of how India needs to get involved and help toward securing peace.
In a recent interview with Bloomberg Television, Stubb said, “We need a ceasefire…I’m just wondering whether the Europeans or actually India could get involved. We saw foreign minister Jaishankar calling for a ceasefire and negotiations just to calm down the temperature and freeze the situation.”
He added, “In these kinds of situations, with three players – Israel, the US, and Iran – all with more or less different interests, it’s very difficult for them to organise themselves into a peace kind of a situation.”
UAE’s first ambassador to India, Hussain Hassan Mirza, also said, “One phone call from Mr Modi to the counterparts in Iran and Israel can solve this issue, can end this issue. One phone call,” while speaking with an Indian news channel.
Image Credits: Google Images
Sources: Firstpost, India Today, Hindustan Times
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